A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
