Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
